The Center for International and Strategic Studies – Luiss and the Institute of Chinese Law are proud to present their latest report:
“Friends or foes? Four Scenarios for the Next Decade of the EU–PRC–USA Relations”
Authored by Ivan Cardillo, Raffaele Marchetti, Silvia Menegazzi, and Manfredi Valeriani, this report examines four possible scenarios for relations between the European Union, China, and the United States over the next decade. Featuring a foreword by Renato Loiero, Economic Advisor to the President of the Italian Council of Ministers, the study offers an innovative analysis of global dynamics and provides strategic tools for navigating the challenges and opportunities of an increasingly complex international order.
In this report authors apply the scenario building technique to shed light on the future relationship among Chine, EU, and the US. Scenario building is a structured method for exploring and anticipating the range of possible futures that might emerge from complex and uncertain environments. Rather than predicting what will happen, scenario building seeks to illuminate what could happen, providing a framework for strategic thinking, decision-making, and policy planning in the face of uncertainty. Scenario building doesn’t assign probabilities and doesn’t make forecasts. Instead, it constructs internally coherent narratives that describe alternative, plausible futures. These scenarios are not predictions or statements of likelihood; instead, they are carefully crafted stories that stretch the imagination, challenge prevailing assumptions, and provoke critical reflection. These scenarios help organizations, governments, and more general analysts, to recognize emerging risks, identify opportunities, and test the robustness of their strategies under different conditions.
The scenario exercise that was developed here takes into three main actors, the USA, China and the EU. The objective is to understand possible dynamic developments with reference to the changing strategies and capacities of the actors. Scenarios foresee different approaches the USA can have towards China and vice versa, with the UE in an external orbit. Three scenarios assume that the USA will maintain an assertive approach to China. One of these scenarios (The Bogged down world) describes a situation where tensions remain high, but they don’t escalate beyond current levels. In this scenario, the three actors can cooperate in a framework that alternate periods of openness and closeness. Two of these three scenarios assume that the USA will implement a stronger stance against China, in this case the EU could develop its own path of relations with China (The EU-China love story) or could instead strengthen its ties with the USA (The EU-USA love story) prompting a distancing from China. Finally, a scenario of convergence is considered (The Renewed world) where tensions ease and the three actors are able to cooperate within multilateral frameworks.
The Authors
Ivan Cardillo is the Director of the Institute of Chinese Law and Chairman of the Italy-China Business Development Forum. He is also Adjunct Professor at China University of Political Science and Law and Senior Advisor to the ‘Faren’ Think Tank of the Chinese Ministry of Justice.
Raffaele Marchetti is Professor of International Relations at the Department of Political Science and the School of Government of LUISS, where he is also the Director of the Center for International and Strategic Studies-CISS.
Silvia Menegazzi is Junior Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science and Head of Unit for the AsiaLAB at the Center for International and Strategic Studies – Ciss at Luiss.
Manfredi Valeriani Scientific Coordinator at the Center for International and Strategic Studies – Ciss at Luiss. His research interests focus on Political Risk Analysis, Wargaming and Foreign Policy.
